Against the Crowd

On the Flat it pays to go against the crowd and to focus your betting attention on the toughest races on the programme....

The big-field valuable handicaps are referred to as benefit races for the bookmaker. But that so-called ‘received wisdom’ completely misses the point....

Racing punters like us have one gigantic initial advantage over the bookmakers....

If there is a race to be run on a British or an Irish racecourse, the bookmaker is almost honour-bound to price it up, form a market and to lay bets.

It would be a peculiar bookmaker that refused to do so. I certainly can’t remember the last time that scenario – or one even remotely like it – unfolded.

A bookie who doesn’t want to put up a market for a horse race is a bookmaker who will pretty soon be out of business.

We can look at any day’s cards and we can take a view on the races we want to play in and the races we want to leave alone.

So it might surprise you to learn that every summer that ever comes along I choose to play in the races considered most advantageous to the bookmaker – the races referred to as the toughest on the racing programme....

If you were to ask me what’s my favourite kind of horse race to bet in then I would have to be honest and tell you that I like the big-field valuable handicaps on the flat – especially those run at trips between 5f and 9f....

I can guarantee you that you won’t find too many punters saying the same thing....

Flat handicaps are considered something of a lottery. Big fields of well-matched horses – all with similar levels of ability – belting up a straight track present an impenetrable puzzle as far as most punters are concerned....

Another group will assure you that anybody betting on the outcome in such races might as well set light to their money before the race starts....

The big flat handicaps are seen by many as ‘benefit races’ – races run purely for the benefit of the bookmaker....

And I can’t argue with the fact that the bookies are awfully keen to sponsor such races and to put up valuable prize pots.

They certainly don’t show such largesse for nothing. Such races must prove profitable – covering the cost of the sponsorship effort and more besides – or the bookie wouldn’t be putting his hand in his pocket in the first place.

And I have to concede something else. The big-field handicaps give the bookmaker an opportunity to bet to over-round percentages so big – increasing the notional profit the bookie makes on the race if he can balance his book – your toes curl up.

But – even with all those arguments made and accepted – nothing will shake me from my view that the big handicaps are the best races a punter can be betting in....

Of course I do. I’ve been in and around this game for the last 25 years. And one of the first lessons you learn is that it isn’t easy for the punter to find a winner in a big handicap. Such races are indeed intensely competitive and hard to call.

But there’s a logical extension to that observation – a potent reality that also demands to be taken into consideration:

If the flat handicaps are hard races to call for punters, they are also difficult for the bookmaker to get right.

Or, put another way, given the nature of the race, it is easy for the bookmaker to get something wrong in a flat handicap....

And for me that’s a scenario that very much suits the way I play the race-betting game – because I very much want to be playing in areas where the bookmaker is making mistakes most frequently.

As a dyed-in-the-wool value-seeking punter my objective is always to be seeking out and betting the horses about which the bookmaker is offering the wrong price – a price that under-estimates a horse’s true chances of winning an individual race....

In big flat handicaps where fields of 16 to 27 horses might be going to post, the bookie has a lot he has to get right....

So there are also plenty of opportunities for him to get something wrong.... to get an opinion about a horse wrong.... to overlook a horse…. to under-estimate one…. to over-estimate another…. to go to market with a set of prices that aren’t quite right....

That his range of resources and tools – financial, human and technological – somehow render him infallible....

His racing traders are men with two arms and two legs and a brain. Just like me and you.

Some are better than others. Some know more than others. Some are more committed to their jobs than others.

Some are hungover. Some have bad days. Some are looking for other jobs and couldn’t care less.

Some have their minds focused on the redhead in customer service rather than on the Stewards Cup at Goodwood or the Portland at Doncaster.

I worked for a bookmaker for a few years. I didn’t see any clairvoyants working on the racing desk. There were no miracle workers. There were no products of genetic experiments with their over-sized brains wired up to super-computers.

There were just men. Men of varying class and quality. They drove to work. They drove home again at night. In between times they did the job – sometimes well, sometimes not so well.

They had bits of information. They had their tools. They had their own ways of looking at races and figuring things out. But if you think the bookmaker’s office is some hallowed environ for whizz-kids and out-and-out geniuses then you are labouring under a big delusion.

The bookmaker and his minions are men. Nothing more. Nothing less. Men with opinions and thoughts. Opinions and thoughts which – like are our own – are often wrong....

And the bookmaker’s men were wrong most frequently – as logic dictates – in the races which are hardest to solve (whichever side of the bookmaking divide you occupy) – the big flat handicaps. It is in that environment that horses would most frequently out-perform big prices....

On that basis alone, the big flat handicaps are exactly the races where I want to be focusing my attention....

Such horses might not be easy to find. But the point is that they are there to be found.

What’s the point in looking at a 7-runner conditions event where one of the first two in the market wins 6 and a half times out of ten?

What’s the point in looking at a 5-runner novice chase where the long odds-on shot is head and shoulders above the opposition in terms of class – where you’ve got to hope he falls to get him beaten?

What’s the point in playing in races where the small-field ensures the prices are so tight there’s hardly any value to be found in any one single runner?

As a punter you want to be playing in races where the bookmaker is most prone to get a price completely wrong. The big-field handicaps are that fruitful area.

What is tough for the punter is tough for the bookie. I’m not saying such races are easy targets. What I am saying is that those races – the big-field valuable flat handicaps – offer you the best and most-regular opportunities to find those ‘wrong’ prices – prices that underestimate an individual horse’s true chances of winning.

Finding that value is the key to long-term profit in racing. Forget winners – that’s what the crowd are looking for. Leave that job to them.

My entire betting ethos is based on the principles of being a contrarian. I deliberately go against the crowd. Because in the long run, it always pays to do so....

If every Tom, Dick and Harry in the bookies.... or the talking heads on the TV.... or the columnists in the racing press.... are saying a favourite ‘can’t get beat’ – then I’ll look deeper. I’ll look for reasons to suggest that favourite could, in fact, GET BEAT....

Not out of stubbornness or bloody-mindedness (although that comes with the territory), but out of a belief that the rest of the field could be undervalued, underrated. Their prices driven down by the sheer weight of money on the favourite. The snowball effect of everyone jumping on the next ‘sure thing’....

And I persist with this Contrarian stance because time and time again – certainly enough times to make it profitable – I am able to reap the rewards. My members and I have enjoyed some fantastic payouts from backing horses that hardly anyone else would have been supporting....

Taking the Contrarian approach – and opposing favourites – is the only way to make money from the horses, long term. And it’s not just my opinion – the numbers back this up, too....

If you’d backed every outright favourite in class 1 races run over hurdles and fences since the 2002/2003 season you’d have lost money across the entire 15-year period.

In total you’d have placed 1,681 bets. Yes, you would have found 595 winners at an impressive strike rate of 35.3%. But you’d have lost money.

You’d have lost 109.5 betting points to be exact – or £2,190.00 to level stakes of £20.00. *

Backing every outright favourite in British, Irish and French Group races run since 2002 would have seen you back 1,615 winners from 4,546 bets. Once again, that’s an attractive enough winning strike rate of 35.5%. **

But at short prices a big strike rate does not translate to betting profit. Had you backed all those Group race favourites to win their respective races at level stakes you’d now be sitting on an overall betting loss of 521 points.

** Figures based on official SP in races from the start of 2002 to November 2017

Forget strike rates – it’s all about the bottom line, Profit or Loss....

Favourites in British, Irish and French Group races have not delivered a level stakes betting profit in any of the last 16 years.

Betting favourites in big races on the flat or over the jumps DOES NOT pay. You back plenty of winners. You get to look good heading off to the pay-out window at the bookies 35% of the time. But where it really matters – on the bottom-line – a fav-backing strategy loses money hand-over-fist year on year.

Getting in front is not just about backing winners. It’s about getting the right kinds of winners.

Finding winners is easy. Just back the favourite and you’ll have a strike rate between 30% and 40%. Making it pay is the hard part.

To get ahead over the long term you need to be backing sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices....

Here are just some of the big-price Contrarian picks my members and I have enjoyed over the years, taking on the favourites at every opportunity....

'...Had £25 at 28/1... keep up the good work...'

"Hi Nick. Just brilliant after a great result with the plum in the Lincoln followed by the Irish National. Had £25 at 28/1 so well pleased. Keep up the good work."
Kevin, member

'...Not a tipster...'

"You’re not a tipster, you just provide good insight to races and punters can then make their own minds up on selections."
Matt, member

'...Great information...'

"I must congratulate you... filled with great information that the common punter doesn't have in his locker. many thanks."
John M, member

'...Returned £122...'

"Join the clan (5) Saddlers Encore (9) £2.00@ combination forcast Returned £122 Saddlers Encore £5 to win Returned £32.63 Top man..."
Allan Courtney, member

'...a return of £160...'

"Hi Nick, thanks for the tip Smad Place, I put £20 on the nose at 7/1 with skybet. In a nutshell I got a return of £160. Brilliant start to Saturdays racing for me and that is all down to you Nick. Quality choice once again just keep it going. Thanks Nick."
David Hughes, member

'...your contrarian pick was great...'

"Managed to back both Smad Place and Many Clouds each way for modest stakes but once again your contrarian pick was great and thank you!"
Alan Coates, member

'...I made 600 on the day...'

"Russe Blanc is an old friend of ours... We got 20's on the course with Hills, I made 600 on the day on RB and had a few more £,s on doubles and trebles, my son made a few hundreds as did my wife, a big thanks, keep up the good work."
David, member

Contrarian Case Study #2:

An over-priced horse well-suited to the specific test....

26th November 2016, Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury, Carole’s Destrier – advised at 33/1

Pretty much nobody fancied CAROLE’S DESTRIER for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. Everybody’s attention – as per usual – was focused squarely on the second-season chasers. The market had backed several of those into prominence.

Here at Against the Crowd we don’t give a hoot what the market thinks. We see it as our role to find ways of and reasons for opposing the market. We certainly don’t want to be following it.

The bottom line is that, beyond Native River, we didn’t think much of the second-season chasers and we were much more interested in Neil Mulholland’s 8yo.

We could see the horse – who jumps well and relishes a test of stamina – out-running what we thought was a massive price.

There was no doubt about the horse getting the trip – he’d won the London National over 29f on good to soft ground at Sandown the previous December. And he was running at Newbury off a mark just 2lb higher.

We felt he was on a nice racing weight, we knew he’d go well fresh, and we felt he was still not fully exposed having only raced 11 times over fences.

We also noted he’d won 4 of those 11 races and had plenty of the right kind of numbers in the book.

We felt that if there was good pace on early doors at Newbury, the 8yo would work his way into proceedings from the back at the business end of the race.

To us he appeared over-looked and over-priced at 33s. And it proved to be so. Native River won the race – narrowly beating Carole’s Destrier into 2nd. But the Mulholland horse came from the rear with a powerful late rattle – just as we thought he would. Had the post come just 20 yards later, he would have won the race.

Okay, it wasn’t a winner, it was a very near miss at a big price, but Nick reckons its right up there with his very best picks. Nobody can argue that we didn’t get the value....

'...Just a quick one to say massive well done on the weekend, fantastic picks...'

"Hi Nick Just a quick one to say massive well done on the weekend, fantastic picks. Saved my Saturday to be honest as I follow 4-5 other tipsters, all pretty rubbish apart from you! I was going mad when I saw Carole’s Destrier bombing down the home straight but think I knew he wasn't quite going to make it. I had a 'saver' on Native River but Carole's Destrier would have been a big big payout. Never mind, still a great selection as no-one else even mentioned him. Your new methods seem be doing well anyway, keep up the good work, hopefully I'll be sending more congratulatory emails soon!"
David J, member

'...Excellent day...'

"Hi Nick, Had Carole's Destrier at 33/1 (1/4 odds), Otago Trail at 11/1 and Ultragold at 8/1 and even got my money back from bet365 on Fou Et Sage! Excellent day - kepp them coming."
Jamie A, member

'...I am now up £2,512 since Feb...'

"Hi Nick £35 e/w on Carole's Destrier at 33/1 £25 e/w on Otago Trail at 11/1 £25 e/w on Ultragold at 8/1 £25 e/w on Fou Et Sage at 6/1 I started out at £5 e/w in March 2015, increasing to £20 e/w in Feb 2016, then £25 e/w at end of July which has coincided with a great run. I am now up £2,512 since Feb and £2,722 since first subscribing. Quite a 'tweak' of yours"
John M, member

'...Thanks for a memorable weekend...'

"Hi Nick. After reading your article last week, I had a look at Native River and thought the odds were good dough for an early bet even if they were outside the normal contrarian range. Great result, up 200 on £7.5 E/W bets. Thanks for a memorable weekend"
John B, member

'...best service out there...'

"Nick. Christmas paid for. I backed Otago Trail and Ultragold at 10s and 9s £10 each and £10 win double - and had £5 e/w on Caroles!! Just under £1,200 on the day - and only scare was when Ultragold fancied eating a bit of grass at the 2nd last - THANK YOU - best service out there - has taught me plenty - and always an interesting read - love the new approach - just a shame Mrs B found out about Saturday!! Thanks again - brilliant service."
Ken B, member

'...Another fab weekend Nick...'

"Wahay ! Another fab weekend Nick, following your advice made even better by a shrewd tenner on Native River to add to my tenner EW on your wonder horse in The Hennessey topped up by two tenners to win on Otago Trail and Ultra. Many thanks yet again."
Chris F, member

'...Excellent weekend thanks...'

"Excellent weekend thanks. I did Carols Destrier £10ew and Oyago Trail & Ultragold £20 win at your advised prices. Have to admit I also did Native River £20 so couldn't get much better taking the singles. Its times like this I wished I'd done forecasts, multi's etc but not complaining."
Neil S, member

'...never had such a great afternoons racing!!...'

"Well done nick, you are having a great run at the moment. Backed them all individually, never had such a great afternoons racing!! Carole nearly made it as well, what a finish .if that had won as well a £10 treble would have paid out £35,000. Not bad eh, well done again"
John H, member

'...Brilliant again Nick...'

"Brilliant again Nick. An 11/1 winner and a 33/1 shot which almost won. And another winner at 15/2 on the free service. Another very profitable day. That's now 3 winning weeks off the belt. Quite an achievement given the high prices of your selections. Well done!"
Trevor B, member

My approach is clear. The name of the service says it all. But before I invite you on board, to put my contrarian advice to the test during a three-month trial period – allow me to introduce myself....

My name is Nick Pullen and racing has been a big part of my life for as long as I can remember.

It started in childhood– when it was mostly about cheering on horses I’d picked out on the basis of their names or the jockey’s colours.

I got a bit more interested in the sport thanks to an uncle. His betting activity on Saturday afternoons captured my imagination. The idea of winning money was a seductive and heady fuel to my young mind – and it served to keep the motor running.

My early teenage years saw me struggling to get to grips with a new language found in the pages of the Sporting Life.

Late teenage years marked my entry into the world of betting shops. If earlier interest had been driven by dreams, this period saw those dreams shattered and recast as the delusions of callow youth. Learning proved to be a slow and expensive process. But I persevered. And I learnt a thing or two. Mostly about what not to do.

But racing wasn’t my whole life. Other things were going on. Jobs on building sites, pubs, girls, night-school and then university in Yorkshire.

And after that jobs in financial publishing – editing and writing newsletters and books, meeting interesting people with non-mainstream ideas that they were building businesses out of. It wasn’t racing. But it was part of a parallel journey – one that was shaping my thinking and preparing me for things as yet not thought of.

The racing was always humming away in the background. The more you do something, the more you think about something, the more you work at something, the better at it you get. It’s inevitable. The interest gets deeper and the involvement more and more a fixed part of your life. The bets get a bit bigger too. And what was once a pastime has evolved into something more central to who you are and what it is you want to do.

In my early-thirties I did something I thought I’d never do and went and worked in the betting industry. I went into it thinking I might learn a few things that might be useful to a punter. And, to be fair, I did....

But the biggest lesson I learnt in the betting industry was that I am not cut out for the politics and inauthenticity of a corporate environment where you spend 40-hours a week sitting under strip- lighting watching your life disappear whilst being ‘managed’ by actors, blaggers and bare-faced, brass-necked liars.

Boredom is a big part of working for a bookmaker. The business is centred on intense but isolated points in the week when betting activity reaches a zenith – 3pm on Saturday afternoon, for example. It’s like a succession of flash floods. When the waters come roaring down the culvert, it is all hands to the pump for as long as it lasts. The rest of the time you sit idle or the next thing to it – waiting for the next hotspot of activity.

I can’t sit idle. It’s a waste of life. And it’s bad for the soul. I got tired of shuffling papers and pretending to be worked off my feet during the down periods. Instead I started writing and distributing a daily racing advisory – sharing my thoughts, insights, observations and bets.

It was a privately circulated email to friends, colleagues, punters of my acquaintance. People forwarded it on to their friends and contacts and so forth. You know how these things work.

And then in the early-summer of 2007 – just as I was about to walk out of the bookmaker’s front door for the last time – some of those advisory emails found their way into the email box of an old friend and colleague from my publishing days.

It turned out he was still in the business. In fact these days he owned the business having set up his own publishing company. How did I feel about maybe writing a racing letter for his sports-betting subscribers? One door closes and another one opens. Life works in ways we don’t always understand. But somehow we get to where we’re supposed to be.

That company was/is Oxfordshire Press and since the late summer of 2007 Dave Gibson has published every word I’ve written on racing – a fair few million of them. And we’re still going strong. This old pen hasn’t run out of ink yet.

Against the Crowd is what that daily racing advisory has evolved into over the intervening period. It reflects all the major lessons I have learnt about racing and which have served my betting so well over the years.

It is who I am, how I think about racing, what I believe and how I bet the races – on paper. It is me and my contrarian race-betting methods and analysis in my own words – Monday through Friday.

I hope you’ll give the service a try. And, if you’re already with us, I hope you stick around. We’ve had more than our fair share of big-priced contrarian successes over the last 10 years. Too many to remember them all off the top of my head.

Certain ones stick out. The highlight was probably Auroras Encore winning the Grand National having been advised the night before at prices up to 100s. Cole Harden at 20s in the 2015 World Hurdle is another one. More recently Russe Blanc at 25s in the 2016 Classic Chase at Warwick sticks in the mind.

Contrarian Case Study #3:

Cole Harden highlights the value of the right information....

12th March 2015, World Hurdle, Cheltenham, Cole Harden – advised at 20/1.

COLE HARDEN was what I call an information bet.

I don’t mean I had inside information from the yard. What I mean is that I felt I was in possession of information that the general market was ignorant of and which was not being reflected in the horse’s World Hurdle price.

In other words, I felt I had the edge and that the price should have been smaller than it was.

Sometimes as a punter you stumble on things by chance. It’s not total luck – because you’re out there with your eyes and ears open. You also need to recognise the value of what comes your way. But you never know exactly what is coming your way. You must be placed to see it and smart enough to capitalize.

That’s how it was with Cole Harden. A few weeks before the Festival I was reading a press article about another horse entirely. As a footnote at the bottom of the article there was a small paragraph outlining the fact that Cole Harden had undergone a wind procedure.

Now that was key information. A wind-op might well improve an already good horse who had been struggling on soft winter ground because of a breathing issue. I sniffed about and found the story was not widely reported. It was very much under the radar.

The market had the horse in the World Hurdle at 20s. My view was that the price and the sentiment it reflected under-estimated a horse that was likely to improve beyond anything he’d shown before because of the corrective procedure he’d undergone and decent Festival ground.

We took the price and on the day Cole Harden rewarded Against the Crowd followers by running the field ragged from the front. The wind-op had done the trick and very few people had been aware of it pre-race.

Like I say, we’ve had plenty more big winners before, after and in-between times. A steady – if sometimes interrupted – flow of them across the years. But I don’t want to sound like I’m tooting my horn. I try not to do too much of that.

I just concentrate on doing my best and I let my readers come to their own conclusions. It’s what they think that matters most. Most of them say it all a lot better than I ever could....

'...The single most useful individual I have had the luck to encounter...'

"You are without doubt the single most useful individual I have had the luck to encounter in all my years of following racing."
Sean, member

'...Head and shoulders above them all...'

"Been on board for a few years as a member, over the years tried most things i.e tipsters, ratings etc, but Nick's service is head and shoulders above them all."
Andy, member

'...An excellent piece of work...'

"Hi Nick. Congrat's on Russe Blanc last week. An excellent piece of work. Managed jars out, courtesy of Fred, that evening. Keep up the good work."
Paul R, member

'...Absolutely brilliant last week...'

"Absolutely brilliant last week. Russe Blanc was a fantastic tip. I managed to get on at 20/1. Long may it continue."
Richard, member

'...delighted to collect my winnings...'

"Hi, It was the wife's birthday last Saturday, having got £20 ew at 25/1 on Friday with skybet, I was delighted to collect my winnings and take the wifey out for a slap up meal, cheers Nick, keep up the good work."
Dave, member

'...£1700 profit thank you Nick!...'

"Placed two bets on your advisory, what you said was making a lot of sense. £100 win at 9s and later on Friday £100 win at 8s.Watched the race on Saturday afternoon, Pendra and BG were a pleasure to watch you could see(baring a fall) he was in cruise control £1700 profit thank you Nick!"
Jason Thomas, member

As our name – Against the Crowd – suggests, we are not in the habit of buying into consensus opinion.

I am a dyed-in-the-wool contrarian. And it is my unique against-the-grain analysis that distinguishes Against the Crowd from other horse-racing information services.

Our over-riding objective is to put you firmly on the right side of the odds in the big races....

That means that, unlike out-and-out tipping services, our focus is NOT on finding winners....

That may seem strange. But winners are only half the equation when it comes to making money. In fact – this may seem peculiar too – backing too many winners of the wrong sort will hurt long-term performance.

To secure long-term profit you need to be backing sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices. Winning at the game is not just about finding race winners. It’s about finding race winners AND prices. And the prices must be right.

If it were just a question of winners then the game would be easy. You’d simply back the favourites – the market’s opinion of the best horse in the race. Favourites win about 40% of the time. That’s as good a strike-rate as anybody can expect to achieve with their race-betting. And that should do the trick – right?

Wrong! The numbers I quote above conclusively prove that backing favourites in the big races doesn’t lead to profit....

Sure, when you back favourites, you back plenty of winners. But the short prices make it impossible to make the game pay. Fav-backing means you experience the joy of winning more frequently than most – but those wins do not translate into betting profit.

At Against the Crowd, our focus is on finding value and our analytical methods are specifically tailored to rooting it out – like pigs hunting truffles....

Getting value doesn’t mean just betting a horse at a big price. Getting value means backing a competitive horse that is trading at the wrong price.

We don’t just throw a dart at the bottom end of the market and back the biggest-priced horse we land near. That would be rank stupidity....

What we’re all about at Against the Crowd is identifying and supporting competitive horses trading at the wrong price – the horses the market is under-valuing, over-looking or wrong-headedly ignoring.

The entire betting strategy is based on identifying and supporting horses we consider ‘live’ contenders but which are trading at prices that under-estimate their true chances of winning or hitting the frame....

Our approach is about opposing market sentiment where and when we believe it to be wrong – and capitalizing on the many attractive opportunities that anti-market approach delivers.

Week-on-week we will take a contrarian view of the big-race markets and the prices and to isolate the best and the biggest value-for-money bets we can find – complete with our reasoning.

Our view is that betting horses at value-for-money prices (the equivalent of buying a commodity on the cheap) is the most effective way of producing long-term betting profit. In other words: I believe the best place to be in the racing markets is Against the Crowd....

Now that’s not always psychologically the most comfortable place to be, of course. And the lone wolf approach to race betting won’t appeal to all-comers.

But the rewards are there for fearless punters equipped with a pioneering instinct and a temperament that can handle the trials and tribulations that inevitably arise from taking the contrarian approach to race-betting.

We don’t pretend that what we do is easy. Or that it’s all lollipops and apple pie.

That would be a lie. And if there’s one thing you get from me and the Against the Crowd service it is straightforward honesty.

Be under no illusions. Get on-board Against the Crowd and you will back more losers than winners. We make no bones about it. We don’t apologise for it. And we don't expect that to change any time soon. Losing is a natural consequence of playing the contrarian game.

But there is an upside, of course. There would be no point or purpose otherwise. We win frequently enough at big enough prices to make the game pay long-term. We have a strong track record in that department. We wouldn’t have been around for the last 10 years if we hadn’t.

Since the start of 2016, from £20 Each Way stakes, we're in profit to the tune of £4,201.20.

And Each Way profits from horses backed at prices such as 20/1, 25/1 and 50/1.

Our long-game policy of concentrating on seeking out value and letting the winners take care of themselves has served us in good stead. You will back more losers than winners on our service. But when our winners go in they do so at prices that make up for the losers – and a fair bit more besides.

Our whole approach is about seeking out bets at the ‘wrong’ price and getting enough winners to make the game pay long-term.

That is our game. That is the way we play. And we stick to our guns whether we win, lose or draw.

Some commentators have called me bloody-minded. Maybe I am. But I prefer to think of myself as consistent – consistently contrarian.

I believe steadfastly in our contrarian anti-market approach – getting the right horses at the ‘wrong’ prices – and we will change our default strategy for no man.

We tell you no lies. It won’t be plain sailing with us. Sometimes we have a rough passage. Other times we get becalmed in the doldrums. But on those memorable occasions when we get the wind in our sails – being a Contrarian feels pretty good.... and profitable, too....

Contrarian Case Study #4:

Capitalizing on the market’s wrong-headed opinions....

6th April 2015, Irish Grand National, Fairyhouse, Thunder And Roses – advised 25/1.

Contrarian betting is fundamentally an exercise in figuring out what the market is over-estimating (betting into too short a price) and under-estimating (allowing horses to trade at prices bigger than their true chances of winning the race) – and then opposing that wrong-headed stance.

It’s one of the reasons I like to bet in big-field handicaps. The market often latches onto one or two specific horses (be it a result of paper-coverage, tipping-services, the horse running out of a big yard, some talking head on TV talking the horse up) and bets them into ridiculously short prices that over-estimate their ability and their true chance of winning.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about it. I welcome it. Over-backing one or two talking horses into short prices inevitably means other runners are trading at bigger prices than they should be – that’s value and that’s what I’m always shooting for.

Handicap events are almost ALWAYS more competitive than the market’s prices would have you believe. At Fairyhouse for the 2015 Irish Grand National Los Amigos, Empire of Dirt and Perfect Gentleman were the ones that had seen the money. They were the market fancies and I am always looking to take the market on….

Further down the list THUNDER AND ROSES was trading at a big 25s and I felt that was a value-for-money price about a horse that had been highly-enough thought of to be pitched into novice races at Grade 2 and Listed level and had recently won a beginner’s chase in a fashion and style that told me he should be well ahead of the mark of 136 he’d be racing off at Fairyhouse.

There’s no great science to this bet – and no great secret. By my estimation the horse was better than his current mark and likely to be more competitive on the day than his price said the market thought he was. We took the quote and under Katie Walsh the 7yo loomed up at the final fence and ran on well to land the money. Job done.

'...paid for many months subscriptions...'

"First bet… Thunder and Roses, that’s paid for many months’ subscriptions. Well done Nick."
David, member

'...Had £25 at 28/1...'

"Hi Nick. Just brilliant after a great result with the plum in the Lincoln followed by the Irish National. Had £25 at 28/1 so well pleased, now looking forward to yet another National winner lol. Keep up the good work."
Kevin, member

'...a return of £332...'

"Well I backed Thunder and Roses at 25/1 with Stan James, £10 EW and had a return of £332 - thanks a lot but I'm not telling too many about you!!!"
Michael Main, member

'...£295.20 to add to last weeks’ £75.00...'

"Nick, Am I glad I checked my emails today and placed my bets before going out for the afternoon with the missus. £10 e/w both selections with Thunder & Roses @ 26.00 with PP and Job Is Right @ 17.00 with Coral. It's always nice to come home to extra cash!!! Especially £ 292.50 to add to last weeks' £ 75.00 profit from the Lincoln. Keep up the good work!"
Steve, member

'...a profit of nearly £150...'

"Wow! Another great winner. Thanks for Thunder and Roses in the Irish National Nick. £5 E/W on both selections produced a profit of nearly £150 to go with the £90 profit from the Lincoln. Roll on Aintree."
Alan, member

'...Simply the best...'

"We'll done once again Nick. A great winner on the Irish Grand National following the Lincoln Handicap. Simply the best."
Andy, member

'...you certainly know your horses...'

"Thunder and Roses @ 20/1. Nice one Nick, you certainly know your horses. Well done mate!!"
Gwyn Llewelyn-Davies, member

'...it all adds up..."

"Hello again Nick, More thanks for Gabrial at 16/1 in the Lincoln and even more for Thunder and Roses at 20/1 in the Irish Grand National today. Only the usual fiver each way, but it all adds up. More power to your elbow sir!"
Ray, member

'...Another great win...'

"Dear Nick, Another great win with Thunder and Roses. Congratulations again! You are on a roll! This time your research was so good noticing the extent of the horse’s win in January. Thanks Nick. keep up the good work."
John Coles, member

'...another winner...'

"Hi Nick, Thank you for another winner. I had a fiver on Thunder and Roses at 25s and a fiver for a place at around 5.4. Another good result using your information."
Colin, member

'...Congratulations on today's winner...'

"Hi Nick, Congratulations on today's winner. Thank you so much. I managed to get Thunder and Roses at 25/1 and was amazed to see my Betfair account rocket up with only a small each way bet. Great stuff."
Joanne, member

As you’ll discover, being a Contrarian isn’t just about taking on the favourites in the big races. Contrarianism is an all-encompassing pursuit. It’s a mind-set. A way of thinking....

My approach is to look at things differently to the mainstream. And this applies to all aspects of the research, analysis and advice that you’ll receive as an Against the Crowd member.

The Against the Crowd service is about more than just value-based tips in big races....

We are expected to put our head above the parapet and reveal what we are backing with our own money – and we do. And we accept that we live or die on the results we achieve....

But the racing game is complex – and intelligence is key to getting an edge on the market. We don’t just get in touch on Friday afternoon with the name of a horse and a price and leave you to it.

You'll get a daily email from me, Monday to Friday, all-year-round – delivering our unique insights, observations, analysis and betting angles. We think of ourselves as your hired hand and the hope is that our research aides your understanding of the handicap scene and serves to assist you in finding winners of your own....

Every Friday, you'll get my Contrarian Picks for the weekend racing - including my reasons for backing each horse and why I believe the price is value.

We don’t like rules and we don’t stick to a set pattern of content. We bring you what’s on our mind; what we’re thinking about on the day; what we’re reacting to; what’s in our notebook and what we’ve seen and dug into....

That said, members can rely on one or two consistent features in our daily output....

The Watch List is a list of horses that have caught my eye in recent races or for specific reasons. Horses we believe are ready to win.

You'll find it in the members-only area of our website, waiting for you right now.

The Watch List is a component feature of the Against the Crowd day to day service. We make a habit of studying big races in forensic detail – looking beyond the winner and the placed horses. Our objective is to pinpoint performances that suggest a horse is nearing the point where it is going to win.

We give you of our conclusions as part of our daily output and we add those horses to our onsite Watch List – which you can check and monitor at leisure. We keep a keen eye on those horses and the races they are entered in - in the hope of betting them at a big price when the time is right.

Stats and the historic record form another core component of the Against the Crowd service. We maintain datasets going back 15 to 20 years and we frequently use these to highlight hidden trends, patterns and themes within the overall record.

As an ongoing part of our 5-day-per week coverage we alert you to potentially profitable betting angles as and when they present themselves.

And we've had some notable successes with this. For example, in January this year - when SPEREDEK was highlighted in our daily email as a 25/1 Each Way prospect for that weekend's Clarence House Chase at Ascot. The horse came 2nd for a healthy place payout.

The intelligence and insights that our stats-based research routinely uncovers offer knowledge and perspective the wider market is often betting without. And that's an edge.

Many racing services will pepper your inbox and mobile phone with 'must-bet' tips, backing mountains of (usually short-price) horses and favourites. That's not the Against the Crowd way. We specialise.

I focus on one or two races a week. Mostly the biggest betting heats at the big meetings - the big handicaps and the Grade/Group races where the race shape lends itself to finding value.

These are the territories where we go to work. If you are looking for dozens of races/ bets/ horses to back every month, then Against the Crowd isn't for you. We choose our targets carefully and take aim with precision....

Contrarian Case Study #5:

A horse primed to leave known form behind....

25th February 2017, Betbright Handicap Chase, Kempton, Pilgrims Bay – advised at 25/1

PILGRIMS BAY was a classic contrarian pick – one where we completely disagreed with the market’s assessment of the horse and were consequently able to take advantage of a big price that completely under-estimated his chance.

Nobody fancied Pilgrims Bay for this one. 24-hours ahead of the race he was the bottom horse in the market – the ‘rag’. Plenty of more-familiar ‘Saturday’ horses were taking part and those were the ones the market had latched onto.

Pilgrims Bay, on the other hand, was a bit of an unknown. And he was friendless in the betting….

But he was also the most unexposed horse in the line-up – having had only 4 previous runs over fences. His inexperience maybe put the market off. Or maybe it was the fact he’d been well-beaten, on the face of it at least, in his previous two runs….

But those two runs had been on proper winter ground over two-and-a-half miles. At Kempton, he was stepping up to the 3-mile trip for the first time and he’d be getting genuine good ground for the first time since he’d scored on his chasing debut for Neil Mulholland.

That was in the previous December at Sandown and he’d been impressive enough that day. The fact that he was in the Betbright field at all got our antenna twitching and the step-up in trip back on good ground signalled to us that this was a dark horse who might well be primed to leave his previous form behind.

The yard was certainly in good-form. And this horse wasn’t just at the bottom of the betting list. He was bottom of the weights. In short, he was an unexposed young chaser, going for a big pot for the first time and shouldering very little weight….

All things considered, we felt there was a lot to like about the 25s on offer about the horse. And we took it.

It proved a smart move. Out the back early on under James Best, the horse gained confidence before creeping into the race on the second circuit. He was travelling best of all on the turn for home and on the straight he was full of running while his rivals flagged. He saw it out nicely and landed a ‘surprise’ win.

Putting ‘rags’ up can produce a few raised eyebrows. When it goes wrong, you can look like a clown. But we’re not frightened of going against the grain. If we reckon the market has priced a horse incorrectly, we go in – ‘rag’ or not. At Kempton, it proved a correct – and profitable – decision.

'...Backed Pilgrim's at 28/1...'

"Cheers Nick – many thanks for this. Backed Pilgrim’s at 28/1 early on Saturday morning but unfortunately didn’t get to see the race!! Looking forward to travelling over for Cheltenham week – we started 30 years ago!!"
Brendan B, member

'...Great winner...'

"Hi Nick Great winner with Pilgrims Bay on Saturday, 25/1, great job"
David J, member

'...Great day on Saturday!...'

"Hi Nick, Great day on Saturday! As is usual for me on a Saturday, I come home from the pub about 4.30pm after a few pints of Guinness, looking forward to the horse racing. During Saturday's evening meal I play back the recordings of Saturday's televised races as if they were live, as I purposely haven't looked at any results. Steak and red wine were put to the side as Pilgrim's Bay gradually crept into the race and my wife had to tell me to calm down as the winning line approached! Brilliant, and nearly perfect with a great run from Absolute Blast. I managed to get 25's and 12's about the two selections so tank is now topped up for our Cheltenham "attack". Keep up the good work and keep these informative e-malls coming."
Hamish C, member

'...Your contrarian approach certainly works...'

"Hi Nick Bloody fantastic! A belated well done on selecting Pilgrims Bay, cracking pick, It was amazing seeing him go from apparently struggling to keep up to cruising up with two go on the bit. I wonder what price he hit in running, I thought I'd done my money after 2 fences! We were on a weekend break in Cardiff and the winnings paid for the weekend and more - so many thanks for that. I do follow every selection you make as this is exactly the type of selection I would probably dip out on, much to my cost in the long run. I've been a member for exactly a year now, have recorded every bet (being anal retentive) and am circa 120 points in front. Your contrarian approach certainly works, it just needs patience, discipline and a long view. Looking forward to the next 12 months and the start of the Flat Season, (and that coming from an ardent jumps fan!) All the best"
Philip L, member

'...I will raise a glass to you and your fantastic tipping...'

"Thanks Nick. Took 42s on Betfair .....partial trade out at 6s...... Then sat and watched James Best hold on to Pilgrims Bay until the very last stride. Just nipping to the pub where I will raise a glass to you and your fantastic tipping.... Cheers mate!"
Eric J, member

'...I'm about a grand up...'

"I've been a racing fan since I was small and worked in the betting shop profession and I know you know what time of day it is. Keep going,Nick,you're doing well. Ever since I first joined ATC and ATC-Extra,I'm about a grand up,and that's only for fivers and tenners!! So no complaints from this particular member."
LJ, member

'...I must offer you congratulations on Pilgrim's Bay...'

"Hi Nick, I tend not to comment as i know from my own experience how difficult your job is and I'm always ready to suffer a losing run. But I must offer you congratulations on Pilgrim's Bay. I've always found that identifying a race that has thrown up winners is a good way in, to look at future winners and I tend to bet a little more confidently when those occasions arise. I bet mainly with Bet365 and now that they do 'betting in running' I find that I notice a few signs that help me find winners in running perhaps more successfully than pre-race which kinda makes sense really. So just wanted to let you know that I had a little extra on Pilgrims when he going really well and 365 were offering 50/1 in running. However by the time I'd pressed the required buttons the price was recorded at 25/1 buI was grateful all the same. Of course having placed your advices the day before I'd forgotten I'd already backed it so it was a double whammy for me. PS, I love your write-ups and there is nothing I would change about your service so thanks again."
Stuart H, member

'...thanks!...'

"Nick, Had Pilgrim's Bay at 33/1 - thanks!"
Jamie A, member

'...Great selection...'

"Well done on Saturday. Great selection and a wonderful ride."
Tony R, member

From £20 Each Way stakes on my Contrarian bets in those races, you would have made a PROFIT of £4,201.20.

If you'd backed the favourites at £20 Win Only in each of those 384 races, you'd have backed 81 winners, but made a LOSS of £499.39.

'...Opened my eyes to a whole new world of betting...'

"What a pleasure it is to read your articles, they are most informative and have opened my eyes to a whole new world of betting."
Phil

'...Until I started reading your email I was one of the ‘mugs’...'

"Over the years I hate to think of the number of holidays I have paid for the bookies. Until I started reading your email I was one of the 'mugs'."
D Bray

'...Excellent information...'

"I just wanted to thank you for your excellent information you provide ... for not large stakes, you have helped me make over £700 last Friday and about £450 today."
D.Clark

'...Fun, interesting, informative and profitable...'

"thank you for an amazing service. I have only been a member for three months but I have made my subscription back five times over. I find it fun, interesting, informative and profitable. I'm really enjoying it. Thanks for letting me in."
Steve Pennington

Contrarian Case Study #6:

Ignoring the consensus can prove profitable....

16th January 2016, Classic Chase, Warwick, Russe Blanc – advised 25/1.

Sometimes to get the value price in a big race you must be prepared to forgive or ignore something that the rest of the market is over-reacting to.

Betting RUSSE BLANC to win the 2016 Classic Chase at Warwick at 25s was just such a scenario.

The time before last he’d been sent to Newbury by trainer Kerry Lee where he’d put in a clear career-best chasing effort in defeat – despite losing a shoe on the way round.

The whole performance spoke of a staying chaser reaching full physical maturity and going the right way – just the kind of horse it is advisable to latch onto as a punter. Of course, the market isn’t stupid, punters were onto the horse….

Next time out at Bangor the horse was backed into joint-favouritism. But he didn’t perform. Instead of landing the money for fav-backers, he got beaten into last place. The race report said he ran out of steam. The race reporter said he looked weighted to the hilt.

Connections didn’t say too much. But they did indicate that something hadn’t gone quite right in the race. And that got my antenna twitching – because non-physical issues can be put right, and performance can be instantly elevated as a result.

At Warwick the market had only two horses in at bigger prices than Russe Blanc. There was no interest in him. The market appeared to me to be judging him on the evidence of his last race. And, for me, that was an over-reaction.

I focused on his run the time before that. I took the view that, had he pitched up at Warwick straight from Newbury as opposed to Bangor, he would be shorter than his current 25s. And, in the absence of physical issues, I saw no reason why he would replicate his Bangor form rather than the Newbury version.

For me, prepared to take the market view on and overlook one poor run, the 25s was value. And it proved so on the day with the only white horse in training winning for the Against the Crowd column in fine style.

You are invited to give Contrarian Betting a go, by taking up a guest membership to Against the Crowd.

We're not like most racing services out there. We don't charge an arm and a leg. And we don't promise you the earth.

Unlike like the dozens and dozens of 'tipsters' that promise you untold riches 24/7, our claims are realistic.

We won't make you a millionaire. We're not promising to put a Ferrari on your drive. And we won't claim to give you winners every single weekend.

But long term, my Contrarian Picks are PROVEN to make money. £4,201.20 profit to £20 Each Way stakes, as of April 2018.

I've seen other racing services charging £50 a week, and some asking for hundreds of pounds a month. Some of these don't even tell you WHY they’re backing a horse. Just a name - that's all you get. No evidence, no proof, no analysis or knowledge.

My Publisher and I have a reputation for providing honest, value for money services. Membership to Against the Crowd costs just £20 per month. All-in. No hidden extras or price hikes, ever.

Even better than that - there is nothing to pay for your first 14 days, as part of a Free Trial. That free period gives you the chance to sample all our emails and advice for two weeks, follow the weekly bet picks and look around the website - before you pay a single penny.

Our Money-back Guarantee covers you for your first three months. At any time in your first three months, for whatever reason, you can cancel and we will refund any membership fees you have paid us.

No strings. No catch. We want you to feel comfortable joining and testing the service, so we can prove to you how profitable Contrarian Betting can be.

I can't tell you when the first 8/1.... 16/1.... or 33/1 winner will be. But they will come. And a three month test period gives you plenty of time to see my methods at work....

As the race wins, member comments and profit & loss figures above all show - this is a realistic way to make money from racing. I’m not talking about making a second living. Or your own private island. I'm talking about a racing service that will put you in the best possible position, armed with the best possible information, to profit from the biggest races at the best prices....

As well as my Contrarian advice and picks on over 100 races a year, and my daily posts on the members-only website, book your place now and you will also receive:

REMEMBER - this service will give you more losing bets than winning bets. I make no bones about that fact. But when the wins do come, the profits will more than make up for the wait. That's why I insisted on my Publisher providing a three month trial period for you....

Giving you dozens of races in which to read my analysis and see the contrarian, Against the Crowd approach at work.

And if you don’t like what you see, you are entitled to take up our FULL MONEY BACK GUARANTEE.

Start your three month test drive now. And never back a favourite or a poor value horse again....

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